Transcarpathia was part of the Kingdom of Hungary for over a thousand years. However, the tragic twists of 20th-century Hungarian history saw it pass first to Czechoslovakia, then the Soviet Union, and today it is Ukraine’s westernmost region, home to a significant indigenous Hungarian minority. When asked about the possibility of rejoining Hungary, the responses were unexpectedly revealing.

Transcarpathia once supported autonomy

A stark fact of 20th-century Hungarian tragedy is that someone born in Transcarpathia before 1918 and dying after 1991 could have held citizenship in five different countries without ever leaving their village. The region was swept from the Kingdom of Hungary to Czechoslovakia, later to the Soviet Union (with a brief Hungarian interlude from 1939 to 1944), and finally became Ukraine’s westernmost province following Ukraine’s independence in August 1991. In a referendum held on December 1, over 90% of residents voted, and 78% supported autonomy for Transcarpathia. In the Berehove district, 81.4% endorsed the creation of a Hungarian Autonomous District centred on Berehove. None of these plans came to fruition.

Since the large-scale Russian invasion began in February 2022, rumours have circulated regularly that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán struck a deal with Putin for Transcarpathia to be returned to Hungary. This is partly why Budapest takes a critical stance towards Kyiv while backing Moscow in many respects, promoting itself as a so-called “peace party.” Russian officials often reinforce these narratives. For instance, former president Dmitry Medvedev, a close Putin ally, made statements to that effect.

Orbán in Moscow Putin's minister in Budapest
PM Orbán in Moscow. Did they talk about Transcarpathia behind closed doors? Photo: Facebook/Orbán Viktor

What do the locals think?

Despite often distorted and sensationalised media reports, the true opinions of those living there—especially the Transcarpathian Hungarians—are arguably more important. The Hungarian community in Transcarpathia is steadily shrinking due to war, conscription, and economic hardships, forcing many, especially men and young families, to flee. As a result, the population has dropped by tens of thousands, even as refugees from eastern Ukraine continue to settle there, gradually changing the demographic landscape.

Against this backdrop, a representative opinion poll by the Central European Strategic Institute in Uzhhorod delivered surprising results concerning independence, autonomy, and possible annexation.

Former Hungarian politician broke through the border barrier
Photo: PrtScr/Telegram video

Hungarians also weighed in

According to research also noted by Infostart, which included 300 Hungarian respondents, only 0.4% of Transcarpathians would support the region joining another state. Even among national minorities, this figure rises only slightly to 2%. (The survey doesn’t break down minorities further, likely due to small sample sizes.)

Less than 0.8% believe in separating from Ukraine to continue as an independent entity. Once at 78%, support for autonomy has now dropped to a mere 6%, with national minorities showing only slightly higher backing at 13.8%.

Hungarian soldier, commander of Birds of Magyar awarded the title Hero of Ukraine
Robert Brovdi, the commander of Ukraine’s drone units. Source: PrtScr/Youtube

Is there a Putin-Orbán deal?

Meanwhile, 45.8% of locals do not believe any Russian-Hungarian deal exists regarding Transcarpathia’s fate; the figure among national minorities is 38.8%. About one-third (33.7%) and 42.2% of respondents, respectively, could not decide conclusively. Additionally, 42.8% feel there was no agreement between Putin and Orbán to pause missile strikes in Transcarpathia.

The Hungarian government supports Hungarians staying in the region with significant funding covering education, culture, economic aid, and grants. Only 5.2% believe this is a covert preparation for some kind of occupation. Meanwhile, 38.6% welcome the support, believing Budapest is helping the entire region, and 21.1% even describe the funds as a friendly gesture towards the Hungarian minority.

zelensky orbán
Orbán and Zelensky. Photo: Facebook/Orbán Viktor

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