Despite the deal struck with Trump, the European Union plans to prohibit the purchase of Russian oil and gas soon. Are utility bills and fuel prices set to soar? 

Although Prime Minister Viktor Orbán managed to secure an agreement with Trump allowing Hungary to continue purchasing Russian oil and gas, the European Union remains firm in its stance that these imports must end as soon as possible. Deadlines have been set—and they are not far off.

Russian oil in Hungary

According to the Hungarian government, Russian oil holds at least three major advantages over Western supplies for Hungary. First, MOL’s refineries are designed to process it, and switching would incur significant costs. Second, lacking a maritime outlet, Hungary relies on pipelines that can only deliver Russian oil. Third, it is the cheapest option available.

The reality, as discussed on the Heti Válasz podcast, is that Russian Urals crude costs less than the Western Brent variety because it is of lower quality—containing higher sulphur content and longer-chain molecules. Moreover, it is not particularly cheap for Hungarian consumers, as domestic fuel prices remain broadly comparable to those in neighbouring countries.

Válasz Online reports that the European Council wants to ban Russian oil imports from 2028, cutting off a crucial revenue stream for Moscow. The European Parliament favours an earlier ban. If this goes ahead, America’s exemptions will count for nothing.

Orbán convinced Trump
Photo: FB/Orbán

Who currently benefits from cheaper Russian oil? The price difference stands at around 4–5 US dollars per barrel, yet 90% of this gain goes to the Hungarian budget. ERSTE expert Tamás Pletser notes that this is no longer a significant amount. So, even without Russian oil, any increase in costs for consumers would likely be minimal, as the extra burden falls mostly on state coffers, not households.

Russian gas and the utility price reduction scheme

The government claims that Russian gas is essential to keep household energy bills low. Menedzsment Fórum argues that the Americans have not imposed any restrictions here. According to Válasz Online, there could have been issues with the Serbian section of the TurkStream pipeline, but these were resolved thanks to the American exemption. The government has committed to purchasing 600 million US dollars’ worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which covers only about 10% of domestic demand.

However, the EU is once again taking a tougher stance: the European Commission proposes banning new gas contracts with Russia from 1 January 2026 and halting short-term ones by 17 June that year. Hungary’s current contract runs until 2036, covering about 4.5 billion cubic metres annually—roughly 75% of the country’s gas needs. According to Menedzsment Fórum, the EU does not intend to interfere with this existing agreement.

Europan Commission Ursula von der Leyen
Will Orbán’s next move be to bring von der Leyen on side? Source: FB/EuropeanCommission

Therefore, it is a theoretical question whether energy subsidies would disappear if Russian gas stopped flowing. The crucial unknowns are how much cheaper the gas currently is and whether the Hungarian budget could cover the price difference. The Gazprom contract remains confidential, so no details are available.

Taxpayers foot the bill for the utility price reduction scheme

Tamás Pletser has previously stated that Russian gas is likely the cheapest source, with prices reflecting the Dutch TTF stock exchange trends—albeit with a two-month delay—and including delivery costs. Energy expert Attila Holoda points out that it is unclear whether middlemen are taking a cut, adding to costs.

One telling indicator of the system’s “cost-effectiveness”, and the myth of cheap Russian gas, is that the Hungarian Electricity Works received over 484 billion forints from the state budget to cover energy subsidies for regular households—excluding businesses—in the first half of the year alone. This money comes from Hungarian taxpayers. If Russian gas were truly inexpensive, such subsidies would not be necessary. Experts suggest that Russian gas is actually more expensive than non-Russian alternatives available on the market.

gas heating season energy
Illustration. Photo: Facebook/Energiaügyi Minisztérium