A new Medián survey published by HVG shows a significant shift in how Hungarian voters perceive the country’s two main political figures. After months of trailing behind, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has closed the gap with opposition leader Péter Magyar: both politicians are now viewed as equally suitable to lead Hungary, at 48 percent each.
The November poll indicates that the Fidesz camp has regained some momentum not only in party preference but also in the perceived competence of its leader. While the overall suitability figures are identical, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán remains considered “fully suitable” by a larger share of respondents—30 percent compared to Magyar’s 19 percent.
Party bases show sharp differences in confidence
The two leaders’ support within their own political camps reveals substantial divergence, writes HVG. Among Fidesz voters, 76 percent believe Orbán is completely fit for the role. Within Magyar’s Tisza camp, only 44 percent say the same about their candidate, suggesting a more cautious or fragmented voter base.
This pattern extends to perceptions of local candidates as well. Fidesz supporters show far more certainty regarding the competence of their party’s constituency candidates, whereas Tisza voters appear notably less convinced.
Major swings among smaller-party and undecided voters
According to Medián, the most striking shift has occurred among voters without strong party affiliation. In this group, the proportion of those who consider Magyar suitable for the premiership has fallen sharply—from 43 to 31 percent. At the same time, Viktor Orbán’s perceived suitability among the same demographic has risen from 37 to 51 percent, including a notable increase in those rating him “fully suitable”.
This change among unaffiliated voters may help explain the narrowing gap between the governing party and its increasingly prominent challenger.
Tisza still leading in party support, but the race tightens
Although Viktor Orbán has regained ground personally, recent Medián polling on party preference still places the Tisza Party ahead: 50 percent to Fidesz’s 40 percent among decided voters. Even so, Fidesz has improved by two percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting a slow but steady recovery.
Other recent research points in a similar direction. A study by the Társadalomkutató Institute also finds the race extremely close, with Tisza performing best across most settlement types. Fidesz maintains an advantage mainly in smaller towns and villages.
Well-known analyst says Fidesz still has a huge advantage
Despite this, political analyst Gábor Török argues that Hungary’s electoral system continues to give Fidesz a structural edge. His projection suggests the ruling party could still secure an absolute majority of 100–110 seats, even in a scenario where national support levels appear tight.
As the political landscape becomes increasingly competitive, November’s data signals a potentially pivotal moment: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Magyar are now neck-and-neck not only in party competition but also in perceived leadership capability—a dynamic that could shape the months ahead.
elomagyarorszag.hu
Hungary already has the lowest personal consumption rate per capita in the EU. How much lower does the country need to go before Orban is perceived as “unsuitable” by a suhstantial majority of the population. Hungarians are starting to remind me of the Russians you will find in the countryside where they have always lived poorly and have no expectations from their government to give them a better life as long as those in power promote the “glory” of the nation. From that perspective Hungary truly does not qualify as a “Western country” but perhaps somewhat Balkan or central Asian.
Magyar Peter is in excellent physical shape, forcefully articulate, bright, and has courage.
Outside of these personal qualities, he has no substantive experience in government or politics, and, unlike either Orban or László, he has no effective political party underneath him, other than a list of names.
In an eerie amount of ways Magyar’s lack of political resume and personality are identical to Candidate Trump, in 2016.
In the end, I think smalltown and rural Hungarians will not be enthusiastic enough about him, his taxation plan, and his sympathy for Bruxelles to vote for him in the numbers he needs.
In the end, it seems as if this election will be another Hungarian election – Budapest majority Left, the rest of the country majority Right – the result being that Magyar improves the Left’s results over Dobrev or Marki-Zay previous attempts, but, it will not be enough.
Like Orban there have been many other dictators with long “experience”. Other leaders with long “experience”: J Stalin, J Kadar, V. Putin, A. Hitler. Magyar Peter’s cv – After Fidesz took power in the 2010 Hungarian parliamentary election, he was appointed as an official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A year later, coinciding with the Hungarian EU presidency, he joined the Permanent Representation of Hungary to the European Union. In 2015, he became employed by the Prime Minister’s Office. In September 2018, he took over the management of the EU Legal Directorate of the state-owned MBH Bank. Between 2019 and 2022, he was the CEO of the Student Loan Center. He has enough “experience” and particularly enough to know what corrupt practices go on in the Fidesz kleptocracy .
Fair enough, Dear Larry – you do not like the Orban system, and, yes, I am perfectly aware why – not only because you have continuously state so, but, I follow all sorts of Hungarians, Left & Right, and, at this point, I do not need the Google Interpretor to understand what the nuts and bolts of that are.
Yet, he, Orban Viktor, does have positive experience – like, if you wish, Stalin.
Yes, in having defended and in defending Hungary against external and internal threats something which, you, as a Hungarian who has long lived in my country and has mastered it’s culture, ought appreciate many of our presidents have not done – Orban has succeeded against very long odds.
Moreover, if you want to call Orban a dictator, it’s up to you, of course. Yet, for whatever it’s worth, I don’t see it.
Though there are many examples why Orban is no dictator, of any sort, nothing better than his constitutional law against public appearances by the LGBTQ, who, within weeks of this law, put on a massive demonstration of hundreds of thousands in Budapest!
Ugh!
Did any of those protesters go to jail or suffer the loss of a hair?
Can you imagine anyone daring to do such a thing in Stalin’s Russia or Kadar’s Hungary?
And if they had dared, heaven would not have been able to help them!
You know that.
In any case, wishing you a Merry Christmas!
Someone please tell me another EU leader as qualified as Orban- especially since hungary is one of the smallest members.
Please name just one – Europe is in big trouble and the EU is major reason its responsible for the mess. It isn’t russia or global warming or gender studies. Germany who controls the EU and by far the largest- it never lived for 40 years under communism except for east germany, at the sane time the US has been there to watch over the situation- last i heard it still has 8 US installations there. They have managed to piss off it greatest Ali with its left wing goverment. The US needs europe as an Ali but leaders in europe aare making it very difficult.
Please tell us who these leaders are.
As for trump- before he ever run for office. He was one of the most succesful people in the US- not just real-estate. He was billionaire before 30 in one of the toughest markets in the world. As a side job, he had one of the most successful TV programs for 15 years including the UK
Though Fico of Slovakia is quite good, and Meloni has some merit, Orban is definitely the star of International relations within The West.
Orban, representing a country with no assets, a small army, little manufacturing, and which was largely broken by events in the 20th century, has been the leading figure of the EU.
So, you are right, though many Hungarians are angry with Orban, because they do not feel he has oriented the post-communist economy in Hungary well, will not give him any credit…
Orban is the most qualified kleptocrat in the EU and the biggest traitor who is betraying Europe to further Russian expansionism and division in Europe.
As always, Dear Larry – thank you for your reply.
Listen, you know my country well, and, because you know my country, I have to assume that you have a reasonable hold on our history.
We, of The South, are Confederates – or, to put it in modern terms, we believe that States’ Rights supercede Federal rights.
This view was agreed to by The North (Yankees) in our original constitution of 12 amendments, the 10th amendment speaking of this issue.
So, yes, I agree with you that Orban is ‘divisive’, but, not because he wants Russia-dominated Europe, but, because he believes, and has infinite times stated, that his concept of the EU is a Confederate one – one which unifies European nations in market and defence, but, does not violate state member sovereignty.
Okay – you do not like that.
You think, as we say in the U.S., like a Yankee.
It’s your right, but, I and untold Smalltown and Rural Americans share Orban’s view of union.
In fact, my wife and I carry out this Confederate view, in our marriage, too.
We share everything, consult on everything, but, in the end, we are sovereign people.
As to your view of Orban as a traitor to The EU – that’s a good thing, because to be otherwise is to do what Magyar Peter would do, if he were elected – toss what is left of Hungary’s sovereignty into Bruxelles’ hands.
If I were Hungarian, I could not see such an act as anything less than evil.
Hell, I am not even Hungarian and I hate the idea of it.
Like I have said – I prefer Toroczkai, but, still like Orban; – anyone other than Dobrev or Magyar.
Be well!
“Someone please tell me another EU leader as qualified as Orban”
Obviously, Peter Magyar. Very qualified and not corrupt.
“Peter Magyar. Very qualified and not corrupt…”
I guess , Dear Ostanus, you missed all the investigative reporting on Magyar’s insider trading, not to mention you seem not to care that he is covertly funded by numerous alien oligarchs.
As to his qualifications to govern : I am ready to listen, because, other than give rousing speeches I have not seen any.
Esteemed Mouton,
I cannot find reliable source to back up your claims, so obviously they are just propaganda.
Here you can find his CV that shows his qualification.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/256868/PETER_MAGYAR/cv
Below, Dear Ostanus, I did as you bad me – I went to look at his credentials.
I see no political credentials – nothing which should convince a Hungarian to vote for him to lead a country.
Magyar has not even been on the town council of a small town.
As to his honesty – here is but one report on Magyar’s stock market trading habits. I think the testimony of his former girlfriend, in addition to what else is here, is a reasonable testimony.
Also, the polls reflect that more than a few Hungarians will vote for him, in spite of the fact that they think he is not on the level.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gWfH56fibU
I see plenty of political credentials. And guess what, Orban has never been a representative of any city council. Does that mean that we have all these years had an incompetent prime minister? I guess so, if one is to follow your logic.
And I asked for reliable sources. Ex-girlfriend commenting bitterly or a youtube video news clip do not count as reliable sources. And all charges about inside trading have been dropped due to no evidence. Just propaganda.