More than €16 billion — equivalent to over HUF 6,600 billion at today’s exchange rate — could flow into the Hungarian economy before the 2026 parliamentary elections. The European Commission stands ready to provide this hefty sum to bolster Hungary’s defence development — naturally, not entirely divorced from the Russian threat that Mr Orbán’s government has so often downplayed. Such a financial boost would offer a substantial lift to Hungary’s stagnant economy. The key question remains: will the EU once again tie this payout to strict adherence to the rule of law and democratic standards?

16.2 billion euros on improving defence capabilities for the Orbán cabinet

Hungary has submitted its national investment plan under the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme, the National Economy Ministry announced on Tuesday. The total amount of funding claimed in the plan is €17.4 billion, which exceeds the €16.2 billion SAFE ceiling previously earmarked for the country. The higher request, the ministry said, reflects the genuine, detailed development needs of the Hungarian defence forces and related sectors.

Given Hungary’s geographical position, its stabilising role in the region and its stated commitment to NATO and EU membership, a significant share of SAFE funds is “justified and well-founded”. Beyond strengthening national defence capabilities and boosting the domestic defence industry, the programme could play a major role in reinforcing domestic supplier and innovation networks, increasing strategic autonomy and reducing budgetary interest costs, the Hungarian News Agency reported.

PM Orbán and von der Leyen
Illustration. PM Orbán and European Commission Chairwoman von der Leyen on a press conference in 2020. Photo: depositphotos.com

Possible rule-of-law concerns

According to Telex, this could yet pose a significant obstacle. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, clarified that SAFE was not intended to ease the interest burdens of national budgets. She also indicated that the Council of the European Union would be prepared to approve a financial plan similar to the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).

This would mean that Budapest must comply with at least the same — if not more stringent — rule-of-law requirements as under the RRF. Given the government’s failure to fully address the milestones and “super-milestones” linked to that scheme, Hungary has so far received only a fraction of the more than €10 billion originally allocated.

Favourable interest rate

The SAFE programme offers credit to be drawn gradually at an interest rate expected to be around 200 basis points below market financing levels. This could translate into annual interest savings of tens or even hundreds of billions of forints for public finances over the long term, potentially through the replacement of foreign-currency loans, the ministry noted.

Throughout the preparation of the National Investment Plan submitted under SAFE, Hungary held regular consultations with Commission experts in Budapest and Brussels.

NATO EU Viktor Orbán military kickout
PM Orbán watching a military drill. Photo: facebook.com/orbanviktor

The government intends to use the SAFE funds to strengthen Hungary’s defence capabilities, expand its defence industry, develop dual-use infrastructure and improve the long-term sustainability of public finances, the ministry said.

Following the Commission’s assessment and the Council’s decision, the credit agreement could be concluded early next year. According to the current timetable, an advance payment of 15pc of the support amount could arrive in spring 2026, the ministry said. Hungary’s next general election is scheduled for April.

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