A new survey by Medián suggests that a clear majority of Hungarians believe next year’s parliamentary elections could be influenced by foreign powers – and more than half consider Russia the most likely actor to interfere.

Many Hungarians think that this can easily happen

According to the polling data, published by HVG360, 83 percent of respondents think some form of external meddling is plausible ahead of the 2025 vote. While the Orbán government has repeatedly warned of alleged attempts by “Brussels” to shape Hungarian politics, the public remains far more concerned about Moscow.

Fifty-three percent of those surveyed regard Russian involvement as a realistic threat, compared with 49 percent who fear manipulation from the European Union or the United States.

The findings reflect a broader and long-term shift in Hungarian public opinion. Since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, perceptions of the two countries have changed dramatically.

Will we have a safe and fair election in Hungary?

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Photo: Roscongress Press Service/Anadolu

During the first year of the war, more citizens viewed Russia as a danger to Hungary than Ukraine. Today, the trend has reversed: the Hungarian public now sees Ukraine— the attacked country— as a greater threat than Russia, the aggressor.

Analysts attribute this reversal to years of intense government communication campaigns. Medián’s earlier research already indicated that pro-government messaging, backed by HUF billions in state-funded advertising, has strengthened scepticism toward the West while cultivating more sympathetic attitudes toward Moscow. This shift has taken place despite the fact that a broad majority of Hungarians still support EU membership.

Big differences on the two sides

Political preferences strongly influence perceptions of election interference. Among Fidesz–KDNP voters, only 2 percent consider Russian meddling “highly likely”, whereas 39 percent of Tisza Party supporters see it as almost certain.

When including those who believe Russian interference is at least possible, the gap widens further: 19 percent of government supporters versus 82 percent of Tisza voters anticipate some degree of Russian involvement.

A similar, though less dramatic, divide is visible regarding potential American interference: 32 percent of Fidesz voters fear it, compared with 63 percent of Tisza supporters.

The survey ultimately underscores a striking political polarisation. Hungarians who favour a change of government are far more worried about foreign manipulation of the elections than supporters of the ruling party.

Medián’s analysts note that this may partly stem from the perception that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán maintains close relations with both Vladimir Putin and former US President Donald Trump—an alignment that, in the view of many opposition voters, may benefit Fidesz in 2025.