Opinion: The Trump-Orbán bromance

During the recent U.S. Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Trump mentioned Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as an example of his appeal to foreign leaders. “Let me just say about world leaders: Viktor Orbán, one of the most respected men, they call him a strong man. He’s a tough person, a smart prime minister of Hungary,” Trump said.

Many patriotic Hungarians likely agree with Trump. But on the world stage, despite his political prowess at home, Viktor Orbán is a small player. Provocative and often at odds with his colleagues in the EU, Mr. Orbán may be running out of time as real-world issues, such as Hungary’s troubled economy, clash with his Christian Democratic ideology.

Hungary’s restrictive immigration policy and rejection of LGBTQ rights not only drive away foreign workers and “sexual deviants” but also many young skilled Hungarians who are disillusioned with Orbán and his Fidesz Party.

Unlike Soviet times, when traveling outside Hungary required a visa that could take years to obtain (if at all), today Hungarians can live and work freely in any of the EU’s 27 member countries. While most see this as a positive, it could prove to be a curse for Mr. Orbán at this precarious moment in his political career, as Hungary lags behind the rest of Europe. Christian Democratic ideals may please Orbán’s base, but they come at a cost.

Hungary boasts a glorious past dating back to 896, but aside from the nostalgia this history evokes, it is largely irrelevant in a nation now reduced to an experimental Evangelical fantasyland, where religious zealots—inside and outside government—are building a Christian Democratic state. Many Americans see Mr. Orbán as a guiding light and wonder: If only we could do in the United States—under Donald Trump—what Viktor Orbán has achieved in Hungary.

Despite Mr. Trump’s kind words and Orbán’s populist appeal, Hungary is a minor player on today’s global stage. Apart from tourism, Christian extremism, and a handful of companies, Hungary’s economy is in decline. With a population of 9.5 million, Hungary accounts for just 2.1% of the EU’s total population of 449 million. Its contribution to the EU economy is even smaller, comprising only 1.2% of GDP in 2023.

According to a recent EU Eurostat report (2015–2022), Hungary lags behind the rest of Europe and, embarrassingly, its neighbors in terms of labor productivity.

When skilled workers leave and under-skilled workers remain, this is the result. A country not only loses its best minds but also forfeits the greater tax revenue that comes from higher-paid workers.

This is the brain-drain effect, and Hungary has a long history of it. Following World War I, brilliant minds like Von Neumann, Teller, and Szilárd fled in fear of Hungary’s alliance with Germany. In 1956, during the Budapest uprising, future Intel CEO Andy Grove (Graf András) escaped to the U.S., along with hundreds of others. It is hard to quantify Hungary’s brain drain contribution to the U.S. economy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it exceeds Hungary’s existing GDP.