Cooperation of Central Asian countries in the field of energy security: problems and solutions

Ensuring energy security is one of the main challenges of our time for almost every state, regardless of the level of economic development.

In recent decades, this issue has become particularly acute due to the observed geopolitical tensions, instability of energy prices, limited reserves of traditional fuels and growing competition for control over strategic resources. The situation is aggravated by the effects of climate change, which create additional pressure on the energy systems of countries around the world.

Many countries that previously relied solely on their own resources or established supplies from outside are now forced to reconsider their energy policies. Priorities are shifting toward increasing energy efficiency, diversifying energy sources, and more actively using renewable sources.

Against the backdrop of these global trends, Central Asia plays an increasingly important role in ensuring regional and international energy stability. The countries of the region have a unique energy potential, which is formed due to rich reserves of oil, gas, coal, as well as existing opportunities for the development of renewable energy.

For instance, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan concentrate the bulk of the region’s hydrocarbon resources, which allow not only to cover domestic needs, but also to increase export potential. In particular, Kazakhstan has significant balance oil reserves, reaching about 4.4 billion tons. Astana actively cooperates with Russia and European countries, exporting oil through the Caspian Sea. In 2023, the volume of supplies exceeded 70 million tons of oil, which is 78% of total production (90 million tons).

Turkmenistan has some of the largest natural gas reserves in the world. According to the World Energy 2023 review, prepared with the support of British Petroleum, the country’s proven gas resources are estimated at 13.6 trillion cubic meters – fourth place after Russia (37.6 trillion), Iran (32.1 trillion) and Qatar (24.7 trillion). At the same time, according to the Turkmen side, the country’s natural gas reserves amount to about 50 trillion cubic meters.

By the end of 2023, Turkmenistan produced 80.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which 48 billion or 60% were exported. The main recipients of Turkmen gas are China (via the Central Asia – China gas pipeline) – 40 billion cubic meters (83.3%), Russia (via the Central Asia – Center gas pipeline) – 5 billion cubic meters (10.5%), Uzbekistan – 1.5-2 billion cubic meters (3.1-4.1%), Azerbaijan (under a swap agreement via Iran) – 1.5 billion cubic meters (3.1%).

In turn, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have rich water resources. According to the International Energy Agency, Tajikistan has enormous hydropower potential and ranks 8th in the world in this indicator. The country’s potential for generating electricity based on hydropower is about 527 billion kWh, technical – 317 billion kWh.

By the end of 2023, 22 billion kWh were generated, which is a record figure since independence. The most significant project in this area is the Rogun HPP (it is planned to have six hydroelectric units with a total capacity of 3,600 MW and an average annual output of 13.8 billion kWh), the total cost of which is estimated at $9 billion, and the estimated launch date is 2032.

Kyrgyzstan also has significant water and hydropower resources, which are considered one of the country’s main assets. In terms of the potential of hydro resources and their concentration, the country ranks third in the CIS after Russia and Tajikistan. Hydroelectric power plants produce 93% of the country’s electricity.

There are two thermal power plants and more than 30 hydroelectric power stations in Kyrgyzstan, incl. Toktogul, providing 40% of the country’s electricity. According to experts, currently the Kyrgyz Republic uses only 10.5%, or 15 billion kWh per year, of its hydropower potential – 142 billion kWh.

Uzbekistan is in the top 20 in terms of available natural gas reserves – about 1.8 trillion cubic meters. Proven oil reserves are small and amount to about 100 million tons.

The country also has enormous potential in renewable energy sources. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency and the UN Economic Commission for Europe, Uzbekistan’s total renewable energy potential for electricity production is 2,091 billion kWh (30 times higher than annual consumption).

In particular, this is due to the country’s great potential for the development of solar energy and the high level of insolation – more than 300 sunny days a year.

Prospects for the development of nuclear energy in Central Asia

The development of nuclear energy in Central Asia deserves particular attention. According to experts, the region has approximately 20% of the world’s uranium reserves, which makes nuclear energy particularly attractive for countries in this part of the world. 

Thus, the two largest economies in the region – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – have begun work on building nuclear power plants on their territory to achieve energy independence, support economic growth and eliminate environmental pollution.

Currently, Uzbekistan has begun construction of a small modular nuclear reactors. In May 2024, the National Directorate for the Construction of Nuclear Power Plants and Atomstroyexport (an engineering division of Rosatom) signed a contract for the construction of a small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). The 330 MW SMRs, consisting of six reactors with a capacity of 55 MW each, will be built in the Jizzakh region near Lake Tuzkan. 

In turn, in October 2024, following a referendum in Kazakhstan, a decision was made to implement a full-capacity nuclear power plant project in the country. At the same time, the construction of the Nuclear power plant, as stated by the government of Kazakhstan, will be carried out by an international consortium.

Kyrgyzstan is also interested in developing nuclear energy. In 2022, the Kyrgyz government signed a memorandum with Russia’s Rosatom to study the possibility of building two small nuclear power plants in Kyrgyzstan, each with a capacity of 50 MW.

Key issues in the energy sector of Central Asia

Meanwhile, despite significant energy reserves, the countries of the region face a number of challenges, such as outdated infrastructure, the need to modernize energy systems and coordinate interstate policies in the field of water and energy resources.

Most energy facilities in the region, including power plants and transmission lines, were built during the Soviet period – more than 30-50 years old, which leads to low efficiency, high losses in the networks and frequent accidents.

It is estimated that the total amount of funding needed to modernize Central Asia’s energy systems is about $40-50 billion. This includes reconstruction of transmission lines and support for sustainable energy supply.

In addition, Central Asian states have different priorities in using the water and energy resources of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Upstream countries seek to use water for power generation, which requires increased water discharges in winter, while downstream countries are interested in preserving water for summer irrigation.

Added to these factors is the significant population and economic growth in Central Asia, which places a huge strain on the energy systems of the region’s countries.

Thus, the dynamic increase in the population, which has already reached more than 80 million people (annual growth is 1 million people), is accompanied by a high growth of the young population: more than 50% of the region’s residents are under 25 years old.

Urbanization is also gaining momentum. For example, the share of the urban population in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan exceeds 40%, which creates additional loads on energy systems.

It is predicted that by 2030, electricity consumption in the region will increase by 30-40%, which requires significant investment in energy infrastructure, including the construction of new power plants and network modernization. In Uzbekistan alone, annual electricity consumption growth is expected to be 7%.

Currently, about 250 billion kWh of electricity is produced in Central Asia (in Kazakhstan – 113 billion kWh, Uzbekistan – 78 billion kWh, Turkmenistan – 23 billion kWh, Tajikistan – 22 billion kWh, Kyrgyzstan – 13.8 billion kWh).

In addition, industrial growth in Central Asia also requires increased energy support. In recent years, the region’s industrial sector has been growing by an average of 6.2%, which requires a correspondingly larger volume of energy resources. Moreover, at the sixth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia, an Industrial Cooperation Plan was adopted, which is aimed at developing joint projects and improving economic integration. In this regard, sustainable energy supply is becoming a key condition for the implementation of these large-scale tasks.

Taken together, these factors exacerbate the need to modernize the energy infrastructure.

Environmental problems also have a direct impact on ensuring energy security.

The development of the fossil fuel energy sector is leading to environmental degradation. The use of coal in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan creates high levels of air pollution and requires a transition to cleaner energy sources.

Along with this, the countries of the region remain dependent on external supplies, which makes them vulnerable to price fluctuations on world markets, forcing them to seek ways to diversify their energy sources and routes.

These issues require a comprehensive approach based on a balance of national interests and regional cooperation.

From National Initiatives to Regional Synergy: A Comprehensive Approach to Energy Security in Central Asia

In these conditions, in order to ensure the sustainability of energy systems, the Central Asian states are carrying out consistent work, both at the national and regional levels. In particular, each country in the region is developing and implementing national strategies aimed at increasing energy efficiency and developing renewable energy sources.

For example, Kazakhstan, as part of its Green Strategy, is developing projects to use renewable energy sources and modernize infrastructure to reduce energy losses. Turkmenistan is expanding its gas transportation system, focusing on diversifying export routes and strengthening energy ties with neighboring states.