Ukraine’s new president is weaker than he seems – a Hungarian analysis

The weight of Zelensky’s second-round win conceals a weak political position. His fragile popularity, a likely standoff with parliament, and conflicts between pressure groups behind him suggest that he could become a lame duck, leading to increased political instability in the medium term. Uncertainty around Zelensky’s policy platform, particularly with regard to structural reforms and the fight against corruption, has been largely priced in by the markets in the weeks between the first and second rounds. However, only the October parliamentary election will fully reveal the president-elect’s policy positions and mandate strength. The likelihood of Russian moves to test the new president adds to the uncertainty, even as Ukraine is highly likely to remain pro-Western.

An analysis by András Radnóti, Sastre Consulting

In the second round of the presidential election, held on 21 April, 73% of voters supported Zelensky, while 25% voted for the country’s president since 2014, Petro Poroshenko. Zelensky, a comic actor and television producer, had shot to fame in TV show Servant of the People, in which he plays a teacher who becomes president of Ukraine.

Zelensky’s popularity is fragile

Most of those who cast their ballot for Zelensky did so as a protest vote against Poroshenko. The same anti-establishment sentiment was an important driver of the EuroMaidan protests that led to the ousting of Poroshenko’s predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych, in 2014. Under Poroshenko, however, voters have seen their hopes betrayed by the president’s failure to deliver tangible results in the fight against pervasive administrative corruption or curtail the influence powerful business interests can exert on political decisions.

A popularity slump may follow Zelensky’s entry into post, if divisive decisions fragment the broadchurch coalition of voters swayed by his appeal as a newcomer and political outsider. By contrast, a failure to make any tangible moves in the first few months could tarnish hopes that change will be quick and easy.

Standoff with parliament brewing

Despite this risk, such inaction may be inevitable. Zelensky’s policy initiatives will likely encounter heavy opposition in the Verkhovna Rada (parliament), where his fledgling party, the Servant of the People, has no seats. The Petro Poroshenko Bloc, which remains the largest force in the Rada, will attempt to weaken the new president’s chances in
the October parliamentary election by obstructing his policies.

As such, symbolic moves are likely to dominate the first few months of Zelensky’s presidency. The president-elect has indicated a wish to move the presidential administration to the outskirts of Kyiv, the capital, cut staff numbers, and abolish the presidential convoy.