Election 2018 – Fidesz likely to retain parliament majority with 112-123 seats

The ruling Fidesz-Christian Democrat alliance is likely to win Sunday’s general election with 43 percent of the vote, giving it between 112 and 123 out of 199 seats in parliament, according to a fresh pre-election forecast by the Nézőpont Institute.

In Nézőpont’s forecast, Jobbik is seen coming in second with 22 percent of the vote, followed by the Socialist-Párbeszéd alliance with 11 percent and the Democratic Coalition (DK) and LMP with 8 percent each. The opposition Momentum Movement, the satirical Two-Tailed Dog party and opposition Együtt are seen garnering 3 percent, 2 percent and 1 percent of the vote, respectively, all below the 5 percent parliamentary threshold.

Nézőpont projected a turnout of 65 percent.

Though the Fidesz-ChristDem alliance is unlikely to win a two-thirds majority, it is expected to retain a stable majority.

Nézőpont’s model forecasts between 36 and 42 parliamentary seats for Jobbik, 19-20 for the Socialist-Párbeszéd alliance, 11-13 for DK and 6-8 for LMP. It also sees three further candidates supported by the left-wing parties winning seats. The German national minority is also expected to send one representative to parliament.